Building Costs Up 13.1% by 2031: What the BCIS Forecast Means for UK Housing
BCIS forecasts a 13.1% increase in UK building costs by 2031, with a fresh rate hike now on the table. Here's what it means for supply, prices, and the professionals guiding buyers through it.
By Olivier Jauniaux · Published 2026-07-04 · Updated 2026-07-04
Construction News is reporting a fresh BCIS forecast: UK building costs are projected to rise 13.1% by 2031 , with the prospect of another rate hike now firmly back on the table. Behind that number sits a familiar cocktail — materials inflation, labour shortages, planning drag, and the long tail of energy volatility. Why this quietly reshapes the housing market Rising build costs don't just hit developers. They ripple: New-build supply tightens as marginal schemes fail viability tests, keeping pressure on second-hand stock. Renovation economics shift , making the "buy and improve" strategy more expensive and more risky. Leasehold and BTR service charges climb , as maintenance and remediation costs feed through. EPC upgrade pathways get harder to underwrite for landlords facing the C-by-2030 target. What buyers and sellers should be asking now For anyone transacting in the next 18 months, the honest question is: does my professional actually understand this? A good agent should be able to talk you through how build-cost inflation is likely to affect the value of your property versus a similar new-build. A good broker should be modelling your affordability against a higher-for-longer