BCIS forecasts a 13.1% increase in UK building costs by 2031, with a fresh rate hike now on the table. Here's what it means for supply, prices, and the professionals guiding buyers through it.
Construction News is reporting a fresh BCIS forecast: UK building costs are projected to rise 13.1% by 2031 , with the prospect of another rate hike now firmly back on the table. Behind that number sits a familiar cocktail — materials inflation, labour shortages, planning drag, and the long tail of energy volatility.
Why this quietly reshapes the housing market
Rising build costs don't just hit developers. They ripple:
New-build supply tightens as marginal schemes fail viability tests, keeping pressure on second-hand stock.
Renovation economics shift , making the "buy and improve" strategy more expensive and more risky.
Leasehold and BTR service charges climb , as maintenance and remediation costs feed through.
EPC upgrade pathways get harder to underwrite for landlords facing the C-by-2030 target.
What buyers and sellers should be asking now
For anyone transacting in the next 18 months, the honest question is: does my professional actually understand this? A good agent should be able to talk you through how build-cost inflation is likely to affect the value of your property versus a similar new-build. A good broker should be modelling your affordability against a higher-for-longer rate curve, not last year's optimism. A good surveyor should be flagging remediation exposure before you exchange, not after.
The NestLink lens
Macro forecasts are useful but abstract. The reason we built NestScore is that the difference between a professional who has thought about this and one who hasn't is the difference between a good move and a costly one. In a market where costs are rising for years to come, that difference compounds.
Find professionals who understand the numbers →